Done deal: Adam Wainwright needs surgery, so now what?
So what now? Well, the magic of pitching coach Dave Duncan will be challenged again.
The Wainwright-Chris Carpenter combination led a Cardinals rotation that had the lowest ERA in the National League last season -- 3.50. Remove Wainwright's statistics (20-11, 2.42) and the other Cardinals starters had a 3.82 ERA. That would have finished sixth in the league, but still ahead of the rest of the NL Central.
No matter where the Cardinals turn for another starter -- manager Tony La Russa said Wednesday that it will be within the Cardinals camp -- they're not likely to find a 2.42-ERA replacement. Just matching that 3.82 from everyone else might be enough to keep St. Louis in contention.
One problem: the division's pitching competition is getting stiffer.
A mostly young rotation for division champion Cincinnati should improve. After No. 1 Bronson Arroyo, the rest of the Reds rotation will come from among Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Mike Leake, Travis Wood and Homer Bailey, all 25 or younger.
Milwaukee added former AL Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to its rotation during the offseason and the Cubs picked up Matt Garza.
The good news for the Cardinals is that Carpenter, Jaime Garcia, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse -- the rest of 2010's season-ending rotation -- return. The rest of the equation is the list of choices to replace Wainwright.
Kyle McClellan has been a bullpen mainstay the past three seasons, but the Cardinals have considered converting him in the past only to opt for more veteran options. With Wainwright's injury coming so early in spring training, McClellan is a more viable option because he has enough time to build up his stamina for a heavier workload.
If La Russa and Duncan again prefer more experienced starters, the most likely choices are 40-year-old Miguel Batista, with 238 career starts but only one in the past two seasons, or Ian Snell, 29. Both were signed to minor-league contracts in mid-January.
Using that 3.82 ERA as a benchmark for potential replacements, McClellan fits nicely with a 3.23 over his 202 relief appearances in three seasons, including steady improvement every year down to last year's 2.27. Batista's 2010 ERA was 3.70 for Washington, the first time he's been under 3.82 since 2004. Snell, who came into the majors in '04, had a career best 3.76 for Pittsburgh in 2007, the only season he's been under 4.00.
And then there are the kids. Lance Lynn and P.J. Walters are the Cardinals prospects closest to major league ready. Walters, 25, remains a rookie despite brief looks the past two seasons and a less-than-impressive 7.24 ERA. But his most recent appearance was seven shutout innings against Pittsburgh last September after Wainwright had been shut down with elbow discomfort.
Lynn, 23, hasn't pitched in the majors. He roared through five levels of the system in 2008-09 with a combined 2.62 ERA, but leveled off at Class AAA last season with a 4.74 ERA and allowed a hit per inning for the first time in his pro career.
Their top pitching prospect, Shelby Miller, is still less than two years removed from high school. He has yet to pitch above low Class A, and though he figures to be a major part of the Cardinals' rotation, that won't happen this year.
For Cardinals management, there's one tiny bit of potential silver lining to the Wainwright injury, in a perverse sort of way. Wainwright's contract has option years for 2012 and '13, worth a total of $21 million, which vested when he finished second in last year's Cy Young Award voting. But one other clause that can negate the option years -- if Wainwright finished the 2011 season on the disabled list. There's a potential $21 million to put toward the next Albert Pujols offer.
Despite losing a 20-game winner, the Cardinals aren't necessarily doomed. As La Russa said last week, "Filling your roster with quality and depth is what gets you into the 90s (in victories)."
The Cardinals won 86 last year. Improving on that has become more of a challenge.
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