To be fair, we have had an almost endless supply of ?crucial? days over the course of the 131-day NBA lockout, but given the realities that both parties face, there is no question that the next 48 hours will set the process on a new path?either one that results in a new collective-bargaining agreement or one that sends the two sides into an extended legal battle that jeopardizes the 2011-12 season.
There has been movement within every faction on the league side and player side, and there is still the lingering possibility of one last meeting that changes everything?if the league were to make some concessions late in the game, it might allow the union to save face and present the deal to its members. That may be wishful thinking, though. In the meantime, let?s set the situation going into Tuesday:
The offer. On Saturday, the league OK?d some of mediator George Cohen?s ?what-if? concepts, as they were labeled, formalizing them into a new proposal that would feature, essentially, a 50-50 split on revenue (though that number could go as low as 49 percent for players, or as high as 51 percent). The league also accepted some compromises on how to deal with teams that pay the luxury tax, but the union held that the rules would be too restrictive on the league?s top-spending teams. Of course, the league then said that the union would have until the close of business Wednesday to accept the deal, or it would revert to the proposal that was basically being offered when the lockout began?47 percent of revenue going to players, current contracts rolled back and a ?flex? salary cap, a proposal the union roundly rejected.
Hardline owners. ESPN.com reported that on Monday, a group of as many as 11 ?hardline? owners?including Charlotte?s Michael Jordan, Portland?s Paul Allen and Milwaukee?s Herb Kohl?held a conference call, the gist being that they?re hoping the players do not push to vote on the 50-50 deal, because they fear the league is giving up too much under the current proposal. There are said to be as many as 14 hardliners out of the league?s 30 owners, also including Phoenix?s Robert Sarver and Cleveland?s Dan Gilbert.
Commissioner David Stern. As expected, Stern has been making a public plea to get the bulk of players to request a vote on the offer that?s on the table. He refused to characterize his maneuvers on Saturday as an ultimatum, but he made an offer with a deadline, after which a much worse offer will be proffered?sounds like an ultimatum from here. It?s a big-time gamble for Stern, proposing this deal under these circumstances, because he has backed the players into a corner, and even if they were inclined to accept this offer, doing so under threat would paint them in a bad light. No one wants to be bullied. Stern appeared on "SportsCenter" on Monday, saying, ?We think that there's a great offer on the table, and what we told the players is, ?It's getting late.? The only rational thing to do is for us to make that deal, because given what's going on in our business and our industry, it'll get worse from there.?
Board of Governors. Because the hardline owners have been so vocal lately, Sporting News asked Stern after Saturday?s meeting whether he felt he could get the 50-50 deal passed by his BOG. He pointed out that the owners also had a long meeting regarding revenue sharing on Saturday and, with all factors considered, he felt the deal would be accepted. ?Yes,? he said. ?We had a, in the language of diplomacy, frank and open dialogue at our Board of Governors meeting. It was a good meeting. When you have 30 people, you get different points of view, but they were, I believe, very supportive of the committee and its efforts to bring back a deal that would be presented at the same time as a revenue sharing proposal.? That will be the key to pushing hardliners to support the 50-50 deal?getting a strong revenue-sharing agreement in place to help small markets stay viable.
Union?s executive committee. The offer presented by the NBA is a far cry from what union leadership has been seeking from the league. Worse, the group was incensed at what they viewed as Stern?s attempt to strong-arm players. Thus, it has been the position of union president Derek Fisher not to put the current proposal to a vote. The union did finally show a willingness to drop below its stance on 52.5 percent of BRI, offering a 50-49 split, with one percent going to a fund to help retired players, a move that was not favored by executive director Billy Hunter. But no one on the committee supports the league?s latest offer.
Union reps. The 30 players who serve as union rep for their teams have been summoned to New York for a Tuesday meeting to take the pulse of players?many of whom are upset that there will be no vote. So far, the signals have been mixed, and one union rep told SN that, if there were a vote, ?It would be close. It would probably pass. But it would be close.? Anthony Tolliver, the union rep for the Timberwolves, told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, ?I want to see what everybody else has to say before I decide what I want to do. At this point, I?m split down the middle like everybody else. I don?t know what I want to do.? Yahoo! Sports reported on Monday that Lakers point guard Steve Blake had been working the phones in support of the league?s offer, and Houston?s Kevin Martin said in a text to SI.com, ?If you know for sure (the owners) are not moving, then you take the best deal possible.?
Stars. There is still a sense that most star players are willing to lose a season in order to keep the union from caving to what they see as a bad deal for current and future players. Though the Yahoo! report indicated that Portland?s LaMarcus Aldridge and the Lakers? Kobe Bryant would be on board with the 50-50 deal, many of the league?s recognizable players seem to be against it. ?Sickening, man, just sickening,? Kevin Durant said, according to the AP. ?Us, as players, we sacrificed, we gave up money, we did what we had to do, now it's up to the owners, and it looks like they?re not going to give in. At this point now, it?s starting to get bad, because we?ve done all we can do, I think. They?re trying to pressure us and back us in a corner. If they?re going to do that, it's not fair. We?re going to stand firm."
Decertification. If the players do not accept the 50-50 offer, it is almost certain they will vote to decertify the union and sue the league. Players, led by Boston?s Paul Pierce, have held three conference calls on decertification, which would essentially dissolve the union based on a vote by membership?different than the more controlled decertification of the NFL players union, which was initiated by union leadership. Still, decertified NFL players sued to stop the lockout, and after an initial win, their claims were rejected on appeal by the Eighth Circuit court. That?s the precedent, and there is no reason to believe the same thing would not happen to NBA players?though a source told SN that players on the conference calls have been told that there was enough ambiguity in the ruling to justify presenting their case as something different than then NFLPA?s case.
Agents. Several of the top agencies in the NBA have been conducting conference calls with their clients to lay out the options and what each would mean?that includes both the details of the league?s 50-50 offer and the ramifications of decertifying the union. One agent insisted the goal was not to influence the players? votes, should they get that option, but simply to make sure they have all the facts heading into these very important couple of days.
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